Sunday, 11 November 2012

How to lie with statistics

http://www.audit-commission.gov.uk/performance-information/data-analysis-and-presentation/pages/examples-data-analysis-presentation-tools.aspx

This is hugely amusing, considering the methods used by the NFI to decide that it can use the full electoral register to suggests that 'over 20% of SPDs are questionable'.  The 'figures' show no such thing. It is the Audit Commission, acting it would appear in plain breach of counsel's advice that auditors do not have to be bloodhounds, sniffing out wrong doing where no evidence exists on the face of the documents, which make this suggestion.  It is the prose describing the significance of the 'statistics' which is important here.  Given the NFI's own statistical procedures, which are far from good practice, they are once again hypocritical in publishing information such as this.  What a waste of public money anyway: basic statistics courses are free.  Why waste public money on projects like this?

12. National Fraud Initiative: While the Commission would continue to seek to persuade certain local authorities of the legality of using the electoral register to identify fraudulently and inappropriately claimed single-person council tax discount, the Chief Executive reported that the matter may culminate in legal action. The sensitivities about using the electoral register were understood, but as the aim and outcome was identifying criminal offences, the work might actually encourage voters to have greater confidence in their authorities.

One cannot use the electoral register to identify fraudulently and inappropriately claimed single-person council tax discount.  The Chief Executive had no business to tell the board that one could.  The Commission has no business attempting to convince councils that one can.  My point is not one about the legality of using the electoral register in a case where it DID show a fraudulent or incorrectly claimed discount, but the simple point that as a matter of the facts of council tax discount law the electoral register CANNOT show that any discount has been incorrectly 'claimed'.